Frozen wheat makes comeback, but how far?
By RICKY ROBERTS
County Extension Agent
I've only done this county agent work for roughly six years now, and I would have never guessed there would be so much sympathy for me being ignorant.
I guess it's because farmers understand that nobody really knows anything for sure about the future of our wheat crop. Fact is, farmers deal with "probabilities" everyday when faced with tough decisions.
What's the probability that it will or will not rain? What's the probability that prices will go up or down? What's the probability that lightning will strike our high-dollar bull? What's the probability that the old tractor will make it one more year without an overhaul?
And on and on.
Wheat growers are now scrutinizing the probabilities of whether or not they will have a harvestable crop. Due to the freakish nature of the April freezes, growers (and county agents) don't have historic information to help them better analyze these probabilities.
In other words: It's just about anybody's guess.
So when wheat growers ask me for my opinion on our yield potential this season, I fall back on my own "gut feel" and assign probabilities to various possible outcomes. I have no data to support these, because even the old-timers tell me they've seen nothing like this.
I fully realize that a miracle can happen, and we could indeed have a decent crop.
Here are my probability guesstimates for what could happen with the wheat.
— What is my probability guess for a crop of 40-bushel wheat? Only five percent.
— I also realize we could have a complete and total loss due to hot days, leaf diseases, soggy fields, lack of tillers, or lodging. Probability? Ten percent.
— What about just enough wheat to have to go combine low-test weight trash — say 10 bushels or so? Probability? Thirty percent.
— For 10 bushels more to get us up to a 20-bushel crop? My probability goes to 35 percent.
— A 30-bushel crop would be about half of what we were hoping for in most cases across the county. Probability? Twenty percent.
So — there it is!
A total of 100 percent.
The "Grand Pooh-Bah" has shared his non-existent knowledge of events yet to come. Of course, as each week goes by, I will be changing my guesses.
In all seriousness, I believe this harvest will cover the entire spectrum. Some fields will be good, and others will be really bad. It's important to remember that the crop isn't in the bin yet.
We at K-State will continue to share new information as soon as we have it. Our hope is that it helps make the decision-making process have a higher probability of being the best decision for each individual who is, in all likelihood, in a much different boat than his neighbor.
